Study predicts California COVID-19 peak next week, Fresno peak expected near end of April

News

FRESNO, Calif. (KSEE) – New data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations (IHME) predicts that the peak cases of COVID-19 within California will fall on April 14th.

If correct, it appears that the state is in a position to handle the final surge of patients.

IHME data shows that close to 5,000 hospital beds will be needed by the state during the peak, the state has five times that amount available.

However, health officials in Fresno County expect the peak of novel Coronavirus cases to be delayed in the Valley.

“We may not actually see our peak of critically ill patients until the end of this month,” said Dr. Rais Vohra. “That is something we are preparing for.”

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“We need to bend the curve in the state of California,” said California Governor Gavin Newsom.

It is a term we hear nearly every day. Flatten the curve. It’s a goal by local health and state officials to limit the spread of COVID-19 to make sure local hospitals are not at or above capacity.

“If we truly meet this moment,” said Newsom. “We can reduce the need to surge.”

New data suggested Californian’s efforts to stay home have paid off so far.

IHME predicts that California will need 798 ICU beds during the peak, more than 1,9000 are expected to be available.

The California Department of Public Health has reporter 343 COVID-19 related deaths as of Tuesday evening.

The new report predicts that number will rise anywhere from 48 to 67 a day. Hitting a high point of 70 deaths on April 17th.

The IHME is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the state of Washington and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

COVID-19 resource links:

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